BB day 91.

Tomorrow night tells the tale. Second most important event in human history this year. (Cabelas opening here on Thursday is first.) He's probably right about the outcome. I would have liked to see Christmas win it but Paul has played the most strategic game.



Big Brother 19: Counting The Jury Votes

Posted: 19 Sep 2017 12:00 PM PDT

Big Brother 19 Final 3 HGs at Memory Wall

We’re down to our last weekly exercise of “Counting The Votes” for Big Brother 19 but this week we’re looking in a different direction. It’s time to consider how the Jury will be casting their votes and we’ll need to take in to account the suggestions of a bitter Jury this year.

The first two rounds of the final HoH are done and we know Paul and Josh will face off in the third and final competition of the season on Wednesday night during the Big Brother finale. The winner there could determine who wins the whole thing, or maybe it’ll go the same way no matter which one of them takes the victory.

Paul is planning to win R3 but is banking on Josh taking him to F2 even if he loses it. Josh spoke for weeks of targeting Paul only to pass up on the opportunities. Now just ahead of a possible choice to finally make good on that Josh is actually talking about keeping Paul over Christmas. Fool.

If the guys decide to take each other no matter what then we’ve got just one scenario ahead of us with Paul versus Josh for the Jury votes. In case Josh does make the smarter move then we’ve got a second with Josh versus Christmas. What I don’t see happening is a Christmas versus Paul since Paul is set on taking Josh with him to the end.
Jury Votes Scenario: Paul v. Josh

This is the most likely situation in my mind because I believe Paul will definitely take Josh and to me Paul is more likely to win this same Round 3 competition again this year. And on the other hand, if Josh wins it instead apparently he’s back to considering taking Paul.

If Paul wins and takes Josh it’s just another edge for Paul. If Josh wins and takes Paul instead of Christmas then it’s another ding in Josh’s record for making such a foolish choice. And despite all the “bitter jury” details we’re hearing, I don’t think it’ll matter with Paul against the unlikable Josh. Josh was a jerk to most of the Jurors and while they may be angry at Paul I don’t see enough of them going the so-very-bitter route to change the outcome.

Cody: Paul – Cody had mentioned to Jessica at one point if the house was foolish enough to let Paul get to the end then he’d get his vote. Well here we are.
Elena: Paul – She’s discovered Paul played her, but she’s still going to favor him over Josh.
Mark: Josh – Maybe. He semi-bonded with Josh eventually after all their fights and it could be enough of an excuse to not vote for Paul.
Matthew: Paul – He was a crummy player and thinks Raven is amazing. He’s also still probably crazy enough to think he was one of Paul’s closest allies.
Jason: Josh – Now here was a bitter Juror walking out the door and I’m not sure he’ll be getting over it anytime soon. If we get a bitter vote it’ll be with Jason.
Raven: Paul – The puppet master will want her apprentice to win and don’t forget, August is Gastroparesis Awareness Month, y’all!
Alex: Paul – Jason will want her to be bitter, and she probably will be a little, but she’ll end up voting for game and out of loyalty. She just probably won’t like it one bit.
Kevin: Paul – He told Julie he knew Paul would do what he had to do. I don’t see Kevin discovering enough evidence in the Jury house to flip him against Paul.
Christmas: Paul – She groomed Josh for weeks only to tell him to do what’s best for his game. Seems the connection faded. Meanwhile, she’s got a crush on Paul.

Paul beats Josh by at least 7-2.
Jury Votes Scenario: Josh v. Christmas

If Josh wins R3 then he absolutely should cut Paul. It’d be a huge feather in his cap and be enough leverage in case anyone was uncertain. I don’t think he’d need that though if he were up against Christmas.

Looking at the season’s stats, Josh has several comp wins while Christmas has been handed two default-wins. While Josh fought with HGs, so did she, just maybe not quite as loud as Josh managed.

Cody: Josh – Cody might not like Josh, but I don’t see how he’d justify voting to support Christmas’s game.
Elena: Josh – She’s discovered Paul played her, but she’s still going to favor him over Josh.
Mark: Josh – Like before, he semi-bonded with Josh and I don’t see a reason for him to vote for Christmas.
Matthew: Josh – A toss-up, but he can just go with pure stats to decide and a lack of reasons to vote for Christmas.
Jason: Josh – Josh got out the guy who betrayed Jason. That’ll earn his vote.
Raven: Josh – Somewhat of a toss-up since she wasn’t close with either Josh or Christmas, but she’ll see the group think and go with it.
Alex: Josh – She’ll go with achievements and Josh has them over Christmas.
Kevin: Christmas – If anyone is going to support Christmas then it’d be Kevin, but even that isn’t a guaranteed vote, especially if like all season he asks Paul what to do.
Paul: Josh – Josh took out the big man in the game. If Paul is confident he himself would have won then he’d have to reward the one who ended his game. Then again, Vanessa didn’t.

Josh beats Christmas by at least 8-1.

Now I’m not going to in-depth tackle Paul v. Christmas because I don’t see that happening, but quickly, should that occur, then I’d say Paul probably sweeps it completely against her. I’d say her game doesn’t have a leg to stand on, but no need to go the punny route here.

So there we go. I’m expecting Paul to pull off the victory and be crowned the winner of Big Brother 19. He deserves it if he gets to F2, but I said the same thing last year. If Josh wises up enough to win R3 and cut Paul then the $500K is his for the taking.

What do you think will happen? Cast your vote below and share your own vote count predictions below in the comments. Then join us back here at 8PM ET on Wednesday.

Final 3 HGs on Big Brother 19

We’re down to the final stretch on Big Brother 19 and the Houseguests are preparing for their big night with the season finale on Wednesday (8/7c). One of them will win the third round, make the final eviction, and take the other HG to the end. Who is planning to make the right choice? One of them has their mind made up, another is waffling, and the third doesn’t seem to care to bother.

The first two rounds of the final Head of Household competition is over. Paul took round one while Josh barely nudged out Christmas for round two in a physical competition. Sheesh. Whichever one of them wins R3 will get to pick whether to take the other or Christmas. Christmas has no choice and could only hope to campaign, but apparently she’s not too interested in that idea.
Paul’s Final 2 Plans:

Paul has been working for a long time now to keep Josh safe and with him to the very end. He wants to get there with Josh because he’s used Josh to blow up in the house and attack the other HGs. This makes Josh look bad and despised by the Jurors so there’s no way they would want to vote for him, at least according to Paul’s plan. What Paul doesn’t know is that Josh has been blowing up Paul’s game in those goodbye messages in hopes of course correcting votes his way.

Here’s what Paul has been telling the cameras over the past few days about how he wants F2 to go:

Flashback on your Live Feeds to 9:49 PM BBT 9/13 Cams 3/4.

“I don’t know how the Jury feels, but my plan is to take Josh all the way to the end and hopefully it’s a clean sweep.”

Flashback to 1:59 AM BBT 9/15 Cams 3/4 as Paul describes his F2 goals.

“I’ve been telling you guys my game plan the entire season. Week by week I’ve been telling you my plans… my perfect F3 scenario… and I’m in it. I just need Josh to win [Round 2] because then I secure myself a spot in Final 2 because in that last comp, if I by some chance lose he’s still going to pull me up.”

So there’s no doubt here that Paul wants Josh with him in the F2 and even thinks that Josh is a sure thing to take him to F2 if Paul loses R3. But make no mistake, Paul is not trying to throw R3. He wants to win that and make sure he gets there. He just might need that win to make it happen.
Josh’s Final 2 Plans:

Josh has spent weeks detailing how dangerous Paul is for his chances of winning. He’s been telling Christmas since early September and had even talked about it privately before that. Then he did nothing about it, not that he could have gotten him out even if he tried. Josh held it all back saying he’d take the swing at F3… only now he’s saying maybe he won’t.

Flashback to 6:10 PM BBT 9/15 Cams 1/2 to hear Josh’s hopes for F2.

“When it comes down to the decision, I really don’t know what I’m going to do. I don’t know if I’m going to take Christmas or if I’m going to take Paul. I have no idea because I don’t know if people are going to look at Paul with distaste… and he kinda played everyone and [they might be] bitter. Or people are going to look at him like he played the hell out of all of his and give him the check.

But with Christmas, she hasn’t really pissed people off and she’s made it this far. She’s been straight forward and played a clean game. I’ve cursed out half the Jury. I got in to it with half the Jury. [Lists all his fights with members of the Jury.] So I don’t know. I think I have a better chance at winning this game against Paul in F2 because people are going to be equally pissed off at both of us. I’ve been thinking about that since last week.

I think it’s going to come down to that split second and I’m going to have to choose. I think if I make the big move and get Paul out, people will be like [shocked face]. That would be the vote move, like Steve taking out Vanessa [BB17]. That would be the one move that would take my game full circle, but I don’t know.”

Josh has to be just talking things up for the sake of the cameras, right? He can’t really be thinking to stay with Paul to the end, right? And to wonder if he’d lose to Christmas? Come on. Considering Josh points out that evicting Paul would likely put him over the edge, I think he has to know that evicting Paul is his best move, if he gets the chance.
Christmas’s Final 2 Plans:

Christmas lost both rounds one and two, not a surprise but she did come really close to beating Josh in a running around challenge that spanned several hours. All the same, she’s now at the mercy of the other two guys if she wants to get to the end. Time to campaign, right? Ehh, maybe not.

Flashback to 12:34 AM BBT 9/18 Cams 3/4 to hear Christmas share her own F2 plans.

“I don’t know if I should talk to both of them separately and tell them to bring the other person to F2 and I’ll just take third. Take a knee.

I honestly don’t think anyone else would have stayed with a broken foot. So does that make me exceptional or does that make me the girl that got carried through because she has a broken foot? I’m just having a hard time deciphering that right now, especially with that last performance.”

Christmas admits she’s having a pity party in this same talk, so she better just be feeling down about her game right now. If she seriously goes and has this talk with the guys that they should ditch her and take each other instead then someone should unlatch the front door, let her wander off, and never go looking for her. Awful.

Christmas has been dragged along all season because she’s a non-threat, malleable, and a bonus vote for her allies, but now she could be a bonus $450K to Josh if he takes her (over him possibly getting $50K if he takes Paul) and she gets an extra $50K for herself. If that’s not worth opening your mouth and at least trying then I don’t know what is.

So now we wait and watch. There will probably be a few more camtalks between now and the end of the season. The comps are over. The decision will be either Paul or Josh’s and then we’ll find out on Wednesday night.

What do you think of each of the F3’s plans? Share your thoughts on what you think each of them should be doing or planning to do to get to the end.

Big Brother 19 Jury: Bitter Jurors Could Sway Vote

Posted: 18 Sep 2017 09:00 AM PDT

Raven argues with Big Brother 19 Jury

Between a reliable source and details straight from the top of Big Brother production, it sounds like we’re in store for what could be an incredibly bitter Jury. So much so that it could end up costing a top player his chance at the win yet again.

Paul Abrahamian has disappointed me in the style of his game this season, but it’d be hard for me to argue that he still shouldn’t win if he reaches the Final 2. I’m not on the Jury though and that choice isn’t up to me. As for the people who are in control, it doesn’t look good for Paul.

When we got our first serious look at how the Jury was forming during Thursday night’s episode there was plenty of arguing. Raven was driving full speed down Delusional Lane while the other HGs were discovering just how much Paul worked them over in the house. You’ll remember Josh was adding to that awareness with his carefully crafted goodbye messages and we know those were delivered to the house for any Jurors who didn’t get to see their own.

Now as they’re coming to the realization that their “Friendship” was very much one sided it seems they aren’t taking kindly to it and in fact their conflicts with Raven and Matthew are only making it worse.

In another interview last week, Allison Grodner told cartermatt.com just how bitter these HGs had become:

Carter: From everything that you’ve seen, plus the segment we saw tonight, how would you describe the mood in the jury house right now?

Grodner: Bitter…I don’t remember the last season where every single juror, with the exception of Cody, was clueless on the way out only to realize the truth about their eviction once in the jury house. Not only are they upset to have been played by those remaining in the BB game, they are very upset with the delusions and the mere presence of Maven.

Add that with what hamsterwatch.com reported from a reliable source and Paul sounds like he could be in serious trouble, at least as of last week.

A little birdie told me last night’s [Friday night] jury round table was a whole lot of bitter, so much so that only Matt and Raven planned to vote for Paul, should he be in finals. Of course that could change by Wednesday, but it’s interesting to say the least.

There will be nine votes and you need five for the win. If only Matthew and Raven currently, as of last week, planned to vote for Paul then he’d need at least three of the others to come around. If Paul gets to the end against Josh, like he hopes to do, then would all of these upset Jurors really vote for Josh?

Kevin should have joined the Jury by the time of this round table so I’m surprised he’d be going against Paul after his comments to Julie about Paul doing what he needed to do. I have a hard time thinking Kevin would vote for Josh over Paul.

If we put Kevin over in the pro-Paul column along with Matthew and Raven then Paul would need just two more HGs to vote for him to win. Earlier in the season Cody and Jessica discussed voting for Paul if he got to the end which seems far more likely for Cody to do than the alternative of voting for Josh. That’d put Paul just one away from the win.

Now I don’t doubt there’s a serious potential for a bitter Jury, but with enough time they might still calm down and consider their choices here. Or maybe Paul really will get to F2 and lose yet again. What do you think will happen?