BB week 3....POV comp. results and new nominations tonight

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BB week 3....POV comp. results and new nominations tonight

Post  Banjo on 2011-07-20, 11:30

Meanwhile we see most HG's still in bed at 9:30 am PDT.

Here's the "Have-Nots" in their permanently lit room on their pads with the plywood board underneath.



The "normal " HG's in their dark bed room on their regular beds .



Shelly, who is a "have-not", is up and cleaning the "windows" (mirrors) in the back yard. She is something of a 'neat-freak', always sweeping , wiping counters, etc.



Just finished watching the "Morning After" psycho-sexual analysis by Dr. Rogers. Here's her 'flashback moments' list for fans to view with the flashback function. She considers these moments from the last couple of days to be strategic and crucial moments.



Here's Daniele at 5:20 am this morning trying to school "Dominic the Clueless" in the strategic aspects of the game while subliminally influencing him to her own advantage since he has the POV to exercise tonight and who he puts up can have important strategic consequences down the line......she's quite savvy on how to play the game but doesn't let on to anyone if it isn't to her advantage.


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Re: BB week 3....POV comp. results and new nominations tonight

Post  Banjo on 2011-07-20, 12:55

Some fans are true analytical geniuses. This guy especially....I had to edit some of it because he got really "deep in the weeds". Of course he being another Dani fan doesn't hurt in my book . :)
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Nothing has changed in the house, other than the continued fracturing of the Vet alliance. The true self interests of the players are becoming clearer, but with Cassi being only the second boot, there is still a lot of game to cover that will reorder the universe a few times
. Cassi won't actually be booted until tomorrow's live show, but all strategists agree that she will be the second boot...unless Dom pulls a really surprising trick with his POV power...very unlikely from this viewpoint.


Since I talk a lot about the game from a logical perspective, I devote this post to my own framework of how I view the game, and how I would construct a strategy.

The first item I use is an affinity preference. This is not the same as boot order, but it is related. Affinity preference is the ordinal ranking of other houseguests, 1 to x, of who the player prefers to remain in the game at each boot. It is a way of prioritizing, given an eviction, who you would vote to keep or who you would vote to evict. So, from my postulated affinity preference for Dani from yesterday I listed:

1.Rachel
2. Jordan
3. Dom
4. Brendon
5. Kalia
6. Jeff
7., 8. 9. Some combo of Shelly, Adam, Porche.

What this means is that anytime someone higher on her list is against someone lower on the list, she will be incentivized to vote for the lower ranked player to leave.

Preferred boot order is the ranking of each player that in an ideal game, would be the order that the players leave the game, always leaving the HG stronger than before eviction, in the early phases of the game, and always leaving players behind whose self interest is aligned with that player in the later stages of the game. This becomes very important in the end game (F6 to F3), because you always want other players that feel incentivized to bring you to the next phase, should you end up on the block. The clearest example of this was in Season 11, when at F4, Kevin had the choice to boot Jordan or Michele. Jordan appeared to be the correct choice, because of the perceived ease of beating her in the F3 round, but in my framework, Michele was clearly the player to keep because she would have set Kevin up at F3 to go to F2, regardless of who controlled the game. That error caused Kevin to miss his shot at the money.

So, while Porsche is low on Daniís affinity preference, she is also probably low on her boot order. Dani will not expend capital in the game trying to get Porsche out. Shelly is low on Daniís affinity preference, but should be high on her boot order preference list. This would make Shelly a target early after F10, for Dani, because she lines up, both as of no help to Dani, and an active threat to Dani. There are conditions where an active threat can be high on someones affinity preference, due to other factors, such as being a threat to everyone, not being well liked, which sets them up as Jury Bait, or by being viewed as ineffective at gaining power, and socially isolated.

Lastly in my little tutorial, is the skill of a player. There are challenge players, like Rachal, and social players, like Kalia. A balanced player brings three things to the table. They are able to win challenges when it counts, particularly in the end game phases. They have the social skills to be well liked, and to mask their true self interest, while influencing others to see that the self interest of a pair or small group are aligned, whether that is actually true or not. Lastly, they have an innate social situation awareness that informs them of when they must make changes in their game plan to ensure they move on to the next elimination. Matt and Brit both lacked this last season, and is the reason they got put out.

So, the qualities that compliment the skills sets above, that I look for in a player are:
1. Gregariousness. That ability to make relationships, and smooth the way towards making people like you.
2. Ruthlessness or lack of remorse. The ability to put people out of the game, who you like, while leaving people in that you donít care for.
3. Competitiveness, not necessarily raw athleticism. Unlike Survivor, BB does not require being a great athlete to win most challenges. Raw determination and good concentration can make up for a lot of pure physical prowess.

So, looking at the board, my ideal player is Dani, followed by Dom, Jeff, and maybe Shelly. And given my framework above, those players cannot have their self interest aligned beyond F6, because each player would weaken the others. Two of them could align, even three, but all four, if they are aware of their own self interest would be disincentivized to take each other into a final 4 together.

As we move past boot 2, into the next few evictions, the players remaining will start to reveal where their self interest lies, and with that it becomes clearer what their going forward strategies and best moves might be.

Thanks for tolerating my intellectual ponderings on a silly game, on a slow day.


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Re: BB week 3....POV comp. results and new nominations tonight

Post  Banjo on 2011-07-21, 00:12

So the pre-recorded POV comp. and nominations were shown tonight. Everything went off as expected since the results have been known since Saturday. Tomorrow will be the live show with the next boot. Shelly and Cassi are on the block since Dominic took himself and Adam off with the power of his POV win. Jordan, as current HOH was then required to nominate two new ones. She had considered "back dooring" Brendon and Rachel and put them up but took the safer route. She and Jeff are ostensibly still aligned with Brenchel, but cracks are showing in the facade and smart money says they will turn on each other as soon as two weeks from now.

This opinion is held by several analysts including Ragan the univ. prof. from S12 who does a one hour analysis every Wed. afternoon, answering fan call-in questions and discussing the various aspects of recent events in the show with "Spicy" the super fan that runs the segment. He thinks that Dani has a "thing" for Dominic and it's true that she does want to keep him on the show longer, but I'm not convinced that it's not part of her overall strategy.

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