Big Brother 14 -2012 Day 57

This was written before we knew who won the POV, Shane.



Friday, September 07, 2012
'Big Brother 14' Spoilers: Final 5 Nominations

John Kubicek
Senior Writer, BuddyTV

At this point in the game on Big Brother 14, nominations don't matter all that much. Each of the five remaining HGs has a 20 percent chance of winning the Power of Veto and saving themselves, so the nominations are mostly for show.

SPOILER WARNING: This article contains Big Brother 14 spoilers.

Ian is the HoH. He nominated Jenn and Shane.

Obviously Jenn is the target, but there's an outside chance that she could survive. Dan and Danielle could use this as an opportunity to get Shane out and keep Jenn, knowing she's less likely to win future competitions. I'm sure Dan would love that (he has no real ties to Shane), but convincing Danielle to cut the man she's so infatuated with could be hard. Then again, he did it last time, convincing Memphis to evict Keesha over Jerry.

But let's look at all the possible scenarios:

Ian Wins the Veto: He'll keep nominations the same and Dan and Danielle will probably vote out Jenn, though they could take out Shane.

Dan Wins the Veto: The nominations stay the same and Dan and Danielle decide what to do.

Danielle Wins the Veto: The nominations stay the same and Dan and Danielle decide what to do. But if she's smart, she'd save Shane and then those two would vote out Dan. But she's not that smart or ruthless.

Shane Wins the Veto: He saves himself and Danielle goes up as the replacement nominee. Jenn would definitely get voted out. There's a slight possibility Shane would pull a Marcellas, not use the Power of Veto on himself, then get evicted for it. I want to believe he's not THAT stupid, but I think he might be. Since Shane won, then the Jenn eviction is the most likely scenario. "Pulling a Marcellus" refers to what happened in S 12 when Marcellus won the POV near the end when he was on the block but inexplicably didn't use it to save himself and was immediately voted out....

Jenn Wins the Veto: She saves herself and Danielle goes up as the replacement nominee. This is where Dan is in trouble because obviously he and Jenn would vote out Shane, but Ian has said he'd rather keep Shane and evict Danielle, so Dan would have to go against Ian's wishes.

Basically, given everything we know about these people, I'd say there's a 75 percent chance Jenn gets evicted, a 24 percent chance Shane gets evicted and a 0.5 percent chance each that Dan or Danielle get evicted.

There's also a zero percent chance that Jenn or Shane will win the game unless they're against each other in the finale. Right now I'd say Ian beats anyone, Dan beats the other three, Danielle beats the other two and I guess Shane would beat Jenn.

And because I can't write an article without giving you some random piece of historical data, the Power of Veto has been used 8 out of 11 times during the Final 5, so odds are good these won't be the nominees by Wednesday.

What do you think? Should Dan and Danielle try to boot Shane this week? Could Ian beat Dan in the finale? Is there any way Jenn has even a sliver of a chance of winning the game? Are you secretly hoping Shane pulls a Marcellas by winning the PoV and NOT using it to save himself?